Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Why the economy is getting worse

As if to underscore the daunting financial mess confronting President Obama, on January 20, a new plunge in banking stocks dragged the market to just 400 points above its November 20 close. The index of 24 bank stocks tumbled 20% causing the Dow to fall 332.13 points, or 4%, to 7,949.09, its worst performance ever on the day of an inauguration. So far, November 20 marked the bottom of the bear market that began more than a year ago.

Although the sell-off was triggered by anxiety about the depth of the banking crisis and its effect on the economy, I have read and heard some far-right-wing dunderheads try to blame the most recent stock market decline on President Obama’s Inaugural speech in which he warned that the economic recovery would be difficult and that the nation must choose "hope over fear, unity of purpose over conflict and discord" to overcome the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.

It’s the banking crisis, stupid: Disillusioned investors fled financial companies as fresh evidence mounted that the industry's problems are larger than previously understood, larger than the response so far mustered by the government and perhaps larger than the resources remaining in its rescue program. This latest phase of bank stock sell-off began after New Year's Day and intensified when Citigroup and Bank of America reported huge fourth-quarter losses and the government invested an additional $20 billion in Bank of America.

Britain has just officially announced that it is in a deep recession. The possibility of bank nationalizations, in which governments take direct control of financial institutions, is happening in Britain and elsewhere, as some of the world's biggest banks report surprisingly dire results. The industry's plight, intertwined with the ongoing recession, is the greatest challenge presently confronting not only our President but many leaders of the world.

The news that's coming out is staggering:

Shares of State Street Corp., a Boston-based financial giant that had been viewed as a relatively safe harbor amid the industry pandemic, plunged 59% after the institutional money manager disclosed sizable fixed-income trading losses. Bank of America tumbled 29% after analyst Paul Miller at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. predicted the bank would have to raise at least $80 billion in new capital. Wells Fargo slid 24% after Miller said the company might slash its dividend. PNC Financial Services, a major regional banking company based in Pittsburgh, nose-dived 41%. Citigroup fell 20%, and JP Morgan Chase lost 21%. Shares in the sector have been crushed by fears that spiraling loan losses could force the industry to seek billions of dollars in additional capital. That could lead in effect to a nationalization of the industry because, with private investors afraid to step in, the government has been the only supplier of funds. The government now controls these banks in a “de facto” nationalization.

Britain on Monday undertook a second round in its bank bailout and said it would boost its stake in Royal Bank of Scotland to more than two-thirds. The company's American shares, which didn't trade Monday because of Martin Luther King Day, plunged 70% on Tuesday. Ireland has moved closer to nationalizing its third-largest bank, which has suffered from scandal as well as losses, but the government said it wouldn't take control of its two largest financial institutions.

Don’t blame the little guy

Those who blame the little guy must realize that although some borrowers knowingly bought more house than they could afford with the idea they would flip it in two years, unscrupulous lenders steered the majority of mortgage holders into these loans. These unsophisticated, fiscally uneducated borrowers did not understand the small print, but instead, listened to and trusted the lenders. Evidence shows that many who would have qualified for fixed-interest loans were steered into sub-prime mortgages such as adjustable rate mortgages where the interest increases every few years with resulting astronomical house payments or ARMs where the entire mortgage is due in full in five years (called a balloon). These dishonest lenders refused to re-negotiate the loans and foreclosed on hundreds of thousands of homes nationwide because they thought they could resell them at a profit. The market became flooded with homes, the housing bubble burst, home prices plummeted, and down the economic house of cards went.

The global banking industry, which has written off more than $1 trillion of mostly mortgage-related holdings, now is being crushed by losses in areas such as credit cards and commercial real estate that are tied to the faltering economy. For the past decade, lenders offered credit cards, at low teaser rates, to everyone, even to those who had little to no income. Fiscally unsophisticated borrowers ran up huge balances because the “monthly payment” was “affordable”. Then using the borrowers lowered credit score, sometimes even their health records, as an excuse, banks pushed the interest rates as high as 35%, locking these people into a cycle of increasing debt.

Not to be outdone, the check cashing, title loan, and quick loan industry preyed on seniors who faced unbudgeted bills they could not pay (extra large utility bill, medical bill, etc) and whose Social Security checks barely cover the basics. These businesses make short term, one month loans to these seniors for a large fee. Once the elderly person cannot pay off the loan at the end of the month, the balance owed starts to climb exponentially. The state of South Carolina has one of the worst records in this area with thousands of seniors losing everything they have due to the state not regulating these predatory loan sharks.

So, although some far-right-wingers are already blaming the latest downturn on President Obama, the root of our economic dilemma is a too long unregulated banking, investment, and mortgage industry. This deregulation was a fundamental part of the trickle-down, laissez-faire economic policies pushed by the Republicans over the last 35 years. Then, fourteen months ago on Bush’s watch, while he was telling us that the fundamentals of the economy were strong, the house of deregulated cards began to fall, taking many other countries with it because these countries invested heavily in American stocks and bonds. Already, Iceland has become insolvent as its banks crashed and the government dissolved.

I hope I am wrong on this prediction: Obama can gather together as many highly intelligent, experienced experts as he wants and put their suggestions into policy, but the train left the station long ago. Already having gathered much speed as it feeds on itself in a downward spiral, I do not think it can be stopped. This is going to get much, much worse. I think we are looking at several years of deep world-wide recession, and if not actually sinking into a depression, it will at least border on one.

Thursday, January 22, 2009

I couldn’t walk in his shoes

America, after eight years under the weight of a horribly inept and corrupt Bush presidency, celebrated for three days in a flood of optimism and hope. It is as if the nation is undergoing a rebirth, believing the American Dream of the Founding Fathers, ignored by the Bush-Cheney administration, is once again reality.

We reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals ... Those ideals still light the world, and we will not give them up for expedience's sake. And so to all other peoples and governments who are watching today, from the grandest capitals to the small village where my father was born: know that America is a friend of each nation and every man, woman, and child who seeks a future of peace and dignity, and we are ready to lead once more.”
~President Barack Obama, Inaugural Address

Whatever President Obama achieves or does not achieve in the next four years, he has already changed the tone in America. People of all races are smiling more toward each other, are being more pleasant toward one another. There is joyfulness floating through the air, not just in this country, but all over the world.

America, and the world, living without an imaginative political leadership for too long, desperately wants Obama to succeed. We want him to lead the world out of the worst financial crisis and recession since the 1930s, to bring the troops home from Iraq, and to commit more troops to Afghanistan in order to defeat Al-Qaeda and the Taliban insurgency. Above all, we want President Obama to restore the United States in the eyes of the world as a beacon of democracy and liberty and justice for all.

So, I will say what many of you may be thinking: I wouldn’t want his job – couldn’t walk in his shoes – and I am fervently praying for God to guide him in his endeavor to make a world turned upside down and inside out, upright again. I pray for his success.

Here are the enormous problems he is facing:

Recession
The Bush administration finally admitted in December that the U.S. recession began a year earlier (in December 2007) and will probably extend well beyond 2009. Obama takes over a country in the midst of an ever deepening recession, with the Treasury Department and Fed still trying to repair an historic financial meltdown. For some people, 2008 was a year of financial ruin due to banks that failed, stock markets that crashed worldwide, property prices that fell, and jobs that disappeared with the resulting increase of the uninsured.

These economic woes have forced consumers to cut back. Consumers aren't spending, banks aren't lending, and factories are closing. The huge job losses are sure to continue. Many forecasters expect unemployment to hit 8.5% by midyear and over 10% by the end of the year. These numbers do not include the unemployed who once they no longer receive unemployment compensation are purged from the rolls. They also do not include the millions of underemployed workers. Long after the recession and credit crunch fade, consumers may remain more conservative in saving more and spending less – which will actually make it harder for the government to get the economy out of the hole since our economy is driven by consumerism.

The recession is too deep and has run too long for there to be a quick fix. The Obama team is planning sweeping steps to curb foreclosures and save the financial sector. If carried out quickly, such moves could give the economy a boost by late 2009. Then again, it might not, due to banks and investment firms being in much worse shape than originally stated. The recession is feeding on itself, spiraling downward, possibly too entrenched now for anyone to stop it. And this stimulus package of up to $850 billion will cause the 2009 budget deficit to balloon to $1.2 trillion. So, once the economy is stabilized, we will all have to tighten our belts and be willing to pay higher taxes to pay off the deficit now instead of passing it on to our children and grandchildren.

Health Care
In 2007, 45.7 million people in the U.S. (15.3% of the population) were without health insurance for at least part of the year. In 2000, our health care system was ranked by the World Health Organization as the first in responsiveness, but highest in cost, 37th in overall performance, and 72nd by overall level of health of its citizens among 191 nations. The U.S. is the only wealthy, industrialized nation that does not have universal health care for all citizens. Seniors must spend a much higher percentage of their income for healthcare than in any other industrialized nation.

President Obama believes that people have a fundamental right to have health care. Hopefully he can get the insurance companies and the Republicans onboard and put together a national healthcare plan that will satisfy the majority while covering everyone and bring cost down – a tall order indeed.

Global Issues
Terrorists: Obama becomes commander in chief of U.S. forces as America wages war in Iraq and Afghanistan, continues its pursuit of Al-Quaida and other terror groups, and tries to convince Iran to end its pursuit of a nuclear weapon.

As for our common defense, we reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals. Our Founding Fathers, faced with perils we can scarcely imagine, drafted a charter to assure the rule of law and the rights of man, a charter expanded by the blood of generations. Those ideals still light the world, and we will not give them up for expedience’s sake.”
~President Barack Obama, Inaugural Address

Russia: Under Vladimir Putin, Russia remains eager to use its energy supplies as a weapon — as its New Year's Eve natural gas cutoff to Ukraine shows. Putin has also talked of creating an OPEC-like natural gas cartel. Meanwhile, he's using Russia's energy wealth to sharply boost defense spending, including building 70 new-generation nuclear missiles. Putin's attempt to restore Russia as a major player in world affairs will test Obama's skills.

China: Not only will Obama have to deal with a China that holds title to some $1.6 trillion in U.S. bonds, but a China that is set on becoming a great global power. As China builds a navy that someday may challenge U.S. supremacy on the high seas, Obama might find his diplomatic talents sorely tried.
Losing demand for its products as the global growth engine sputters, China’s industrial production has dropped, with thousands of toy factories shut down last year. Officially, China expects 8% GDP growth in 2009, but some economists say China may only grow 5% this year, with rising unemployment that could lead to social unrest.

China is now the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, helping to finance America's soaring federal deficit. If China cut its Treasury holdings to pay for its own domestic programs, U.S. borrowing rates could surge and the dollar could tumble, sending the global financial system spiraling downward once again.

Other parts of the world: We also have had recent reminders that the world has many long-term festering problems that desperately need visionary changes to American foreign policy. The new administration will have to juggle its ties to two nuclear-armed rivals — Pakistan and India — and seek to end the ongoing genocide in the horn of Africa and Zimbabwe. The centuries old Israeli-Palestinian conflict can explode at any time, as recent events have shown, exacerbating tensions throughout the Middle East. The rogue nation of Iran is building up its nuclear capabilities – endangering the entire world.

We will not apologize for our way of life, nor will we waver in its defense, and for those who seek to advance their aims by inducing terror and slaughtering innocents, we say to you now that our spirit is stronger, and cannot be broken. You cannot outlast us, and we will defeat you... To those leaders around the globe who seek to sow conflict, or blame their society's ills on the west – know that your people will judge you on what you can build, not what you destroy. To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history, but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.”
~President Barack Obama, Inaugural Address

Energy
President Obama has pledged to develop alternative energy and fuel-efficient vehicles, creating millions of "green jobs." He also favors a cap-and-trade policy for greenhouse gases, which could have a major impact on industrial activity. Oil and natural gas production are falling and, by all accounts, will fall more sharply in the coming year. With energy futures well off their highs, and the economy in a deep recession, Obama’s plans may not be possible, at least for the near future.

Trade
During the Democratic primary, Obama promised to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement. Even if he doesn't actively push for trade barriers, many in Congress will. There has been strong support for tariffs on Chinese goods because of the undervalued yuan.

Even if Congress largely refrains from protectionist moves, the same may not be true of other nations. Already, Russia is hiking tariffs on imported cars and poultry. Argentina and Brazil are pushing to raise tariffs on textiles, wine and leather goods, while Indonesia is increasing import restrictions on over 500 products. The global downturn will likely cause other governments to adopt similar measures which will actually slow economies even more.

A patient public
According to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll, though, Americans are confident he can turn the economy around but are prepared to give him years to deal with the aggregation of problems he faces. While hopes for the new president are extraordinarily high, the poll found expectations for what Obama will actually be able to accomplish have been tempered by the enormity of the nation’s problems. Even though the campaign generated wonderful enthusiasm and high hopes for change, most Americans now say they expect progress to be slow in improving the economy, reforming the health care system, and ending the war in Iraq. Most citizens realize that it will take years to undo the mess that the previous administration created.

President Obama is facing an extraordinarily difficult four years. Although his stature with the American public appears to be high, this optimism brings great expectations. The danger is that the burden of great expectations could be the very undoing of the Obama presidency. The public has placed him on a very high pedestal from which he could take a nasty tumble.

I would not want to, could not ever, walk in his shoes.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

The mandate and the legacy


During his last news conference, President Bush uses the word "disappointment" to describe his eight-year tenure.


The mandate

Many of us will forever carry a bitter taste from the Years of Bush. We had long ago grown weary of the Republicans telling us that George W. Bush was capable of being president in the first place, but now some of them are absurdly lauding him as one of the greatest leaders the world has ever known.

Back in January 2001, with Rove at his back, Bush strutted into Washington claiming to have a mandate for his entire political agenda, from a huge tax cut to a reduction of regulations on American business and financial institutions. He asked Congress to ratify his plans for education reform, partial privatization of Social Security, faith-based social services, and military pay hikes.

The media went into fits of delight over Bush’s aggressive and manly dominance, while the Democrats seemed to be in shock, paralyzed by his audacious nerve, allowing him to bulldoze over them. Meanwhile, those of us out here in the heartland who were aghast at the way Bush and the Republican party seized complete power, were snidely admonished by the right-leaning pundits to just "get over it."

The media repeated ad nauseum that the American people wanted a "regular guy" of average intelligence with whom they would feel comfortable having a beer, rather than some boring intelligent egghead for president. They said that Bush’s election meant the regular folks, the grown-ups, were once again in charge, even though he clearly showed the emotional maturity and judgment of a surly teenager.

Bush behaved as if he had won a landslide. This is from February 2001 Business Week Magazine, right after Bush took office:

“When President Bush was asked recently by a reporter about his judicial selection process, he responded that his election was a mandate for putting conservative judges on the bench. Stumping for his $1.6 trillion tax cut (funny how that is about the amount of the national debt), Bush declares that voters endorsed it when they chose him to be President. And why stop there? Bush has claimed a mandate for everything from changing the tone in Washington to building an antimissile shield in outer space.

Mandate? This from the first President in more than 100 years to win the office without garnering the most votes? Bush wasn't about to let the election results get in the way of a good mandate. True, he lost the popular vote to Al Gore -- and in the eyes of many Democrats lost the electoral vote, too.

... the new President is out to prove that a mandate is what you make it. "Essentially, [the] mandate is what you [Bush] can get away with," says Princeton University political scientist Fred Greenstein. "Bush is very good at claiming victory. He has a 'Marlboro Man' approach to communication. His idea of having a mandate is to say 'I have a mandate.’ ”

When 9/11 happened, the public went into shock, unable to discern fact from fiction. They listened to the pundits, believing what they said – that Bush was some kind of savant whose "gut" was so brilliant that brains were irrelevant.

Larry Wilkerson, a top aide to former Secretary of State Colin Powell, said that Vice President Cheney and then-Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld were a national security "dream team" to guide the foreign-policy amateur Bush. But now, former administration underlings, such as Wilkerson, are depicting President Bush as a "Sarah Palin-like" leader with a short attention span who deferred on big decisions. Wilkerson said that everybody believed that the foreign-policy inexperienced President was going to be protected by his national security elite team who had been “tested in the cauldrons of fire.”

It was obvious from the first time I heard George W. Bush speak that the man had no business being president. He sat slumped in his chair like a sullen teenager with a smirk on his face. When he spoke, many voters were aghast at his lack of intellect and ability. It was an insult to the country that the Republicans recruited him for the job. It was an even worse insult that the press destroyed Al Gore over his so-called egghead personality. The pundits loved Bush’s “regular guy” persona and fell all over themselves to help the Republicans pass Bush off as a leader.

Bush never had a mandate from the people of this country – losing the popular vote to Al Gore – and the electoral vote count forever questionable due to Florida. The “mandate” was only given by Bush himself to himself and by media disciples. The Presidency was handed to him by five Republicans on the Supreme Court the first time, and by Ohio “losing” the ballots of thousands of Democratic voters the second time.

Mandate? What mandate? It was a Republican coup.

The legacy

In his final news conference before leaving office, which was obviously held for legacy-polishing, President George W. Bush made many claims that are at odds with his record. He rattled off his prepared talking points and then got ... angry. Not angry at his administration's failures, but at the critics.

He claimed to have inherited a recession that in actuality began on his watch. There have been two recessions during Bush's time in office. The first was a relatively mild downturn that began in March 2001 and lasted eight months, ending in November 2001. Since the first one did not begin until after he took office in January 2001, it is not strictly accurate to say he "inherited" it. The second downturn began December 2007, which his administration refused to acknowledge for months. The economy is in its deepest crisis in 80 years which he himself admitted when he said, “And I readily concede I chunked aside some of my free market principles when I was told by chief economic advisers that the situation we were facing could be worse than the Great Depression.”

Ah-h-h, the “D” word. The economy may be so deep in the hole that Obama’s Economic Team, as experienced as they are, might not be able to stop the slide.

As to Bush’s claim of 52 months of uninterrupted job growth, that is true but misleading. Job growth after the 2001 recession did not resume on a sustained basis until September 2003, continuing until January 2007, a period of 52 months. However, jobs have declined in every month since then with a staggering 2.6 million jobs disappearing in 2008, the most since World War II, and unemployment has hit a 16-year high of 7.2 percent. Overall, during Bush's eight years in office, a net total of 3 million jobs were created – most of which were low paying service jobs. During President Clinton’s two terms 21 million jobs were generated.

On the Bush administration's response to Katrina, Bush arrogantly scolded, “Don't tell me the federal response was slow when there was 30,000 people pulled off roofs right after the storm passed... That's a pretty quick response." But he is ignoring the facts: There were 9,000 Louisiana families still living in trailers as of last Sept. 1, and only 30,000 residents of all the Gulf states received disaster housing assistance. Five of 23 acute-care hospitals in the New Orleans area remain closed. The city's bus system carries less than a third of its pre-storm passengers. Many neighborhoods remain largely vacant. Out of the $121 billion in approved federal aid only $15 billion has been spent on rebuilding in the state. Of 125 public schools in New Orleans before Katrina, only about 85 remain. Many neighborhoods still lie in ruin.

On the situation with Israel, Bush said his administration "worked hard" to advance peace by defining a goal of two peaceful countries and working to strengthen Palestinian security forces. He didn't mention that he put peacemaking on the back burner for most of his tenure and only started negotiations in the last few months. Bush wrote off Arafat early on, saying the PLO chief was corrupt and probably incapable of delivering an agreeable deal to Israel. But one of his biggest mistakes was when Bush pushed Arafat's successor, Mahmoud Abbas, to hold elections in early 2006. He never considered what could and did happen. These elections ended up legitimizing Hamas, which is now in control of the Gaza Strip and at war with Israel. Israel may succeed in wounding Hamas leadership and its ability to fire rockets into Israel, but it probably cannot defeat the well-organized group outright. In the meantime, civilian deaths in Gaza erode Palestinian support for peace negotiations. With Hamas in control, peace could be a hundred years away, if ever.

That is what happens when our government refuses to hold talks with our enemies.

Bush’s biggest legacy might be the “war on terror,” which took us into two wars (with the Iraq war launched on the basis of faulty intelligence), helped him to make bold assertions of executive-branch power and destroyed America's image abroad. Sure, two years after a surge of US troops into Iraq (which should have been done years earlier) the country has become more stable, but Osama bin Laden still remains at large. What happened to the idea of getting Osama bin Laden, dead or alive?

The remainder of Bush's news conference was typical. He portrayed his critics as not being anti-Bush but rather as attacking hard-working everyday heroes. Then he wonders why the tone of Washington became so poisonous during his tenure.

Bush’s mandate never was – and his record stands, as is, through videos and well-written articles stacked from one end of the U.S. to the other. It is a ruinous history, a legacy, that cannot be rewritten regardless of how hard he and his friends try to do so.

Monday, January 12, 2009

No – we are not all Hamas now

Marchers in the streets of Europe and the US chant, “We are all Hamas now.” They feel pity for the Palestinian civilians who are being maimed and killed due to the new Israeli-Hamas war. I feel sorry for the innocents, too, but where have these marchers been for the past many years while Hamas, working from within Gaza, sent thousands of missiles into Israel, aiming at schools, homes, and hospitals? Where have these marchers been while Hamas sent suicide bombers into Israeli shopping malls and restaurants, and onto buses full of Israeli children?

Virtually every aspect of Hamas’ operations is illegal under international humanitarian law. They have committed horrendous war crimes, yet the U.N. reserves its accusations of war crimes for the Israelis.

The Israelis have been attacked from every piece of land that they have returned, after acquiring the land through wars that were instigated by its Arab neighbors. They have forcibly removed their own settlers from Gaza and West Bank and have done everything they can to live in peace. In return, they have asked the Palestinians to recognize Israel’s right to exist and be allowed to live in peace.

D. Lawson, a correspondent with the UK Times, reports that he was recently in the town of Sderot, Israel, which is just across the border from Gaza, talking to an Israeli nurse whose home had been hit by one of the thousands of Qassam missiles that have been fired by Hamas into Israel over the past few years – ever since Israel withdrew from Gaza. She has shrapnel lodged, irremovably, just below her brain. These missiles have been fired into Israel in defiance of the peace talks between the Palestinians and Israel.

Lawson writes: “The nurse said she constantly tells her four-year-old son, who was also injured, that “there are so many good people in Gaza who are not trying to kill us”. Her anger was principally against her own government: “The day Israel withdrew from Gaza, I knew it was a terrible idea, I knew we would be a target. And I know my Arab friends will suffer when the IDF [Israel Defense Force] goes back into Gaza.”

...All the same, even the majority of those Israelis who passionately believe that the Palestinians should have their own state, and that the West Bank should be handed over to them, are convinced there was no choice for their government but to act as it has over the past fortnight. These Israelis were bitterly opposed to the military campaigns against Lebanon, but see this [Gaza] campaign as much closer to the spirit of the six-day war and the Yom Kippur war. “Ein brera”, they tell me, which is Hebrew for “no choice.”

It was no longer just Sderot which was taking hits from the Qassams, and where parents would not let their children play outdoors. The Iranian-supplied Hamas ordnance was becoming ever wider in its range. Ashkelon (which incidentally supplies all of Gaza’s electricity) and even the city of Be’er-sheva are now reachable targets, and more than 800,000 Israelis are potential victims.”

The Israeli response has been described by some as disproportionate because the consequences for the people of Gaza is far worse, in numbers of innocent dead, and more intense than anything the people of Israel have recently suffered. But Hamas targets civilians on purpose and with open expressions of bloodthirsty delight when successful. Hamas deploys suicide bombers, including women and children, and rigs up schools and houses with booby-trap explosives.

If Israel had no regard for civilian lives, it would not shower leaflets from planes and make telephone calls to residents in Gaza to warn them ahead of time that an attack is about to commence in their area because this also gives Hamas notice. This is not the act of an army devoted to military victory at all costs. The Israeli Army’s commitment to a daily three-hour one-sided ceasefire to permit the evacuation of casualties, and for the passage of humanitarian aid, during which time Hamas continues to fire their missiles into Israel. It also gives Hamas time to regroup and redeploy for future attacks.

There are people who cite the Lebanon war of 2006 as a terrible precedent because it left Hezbollah unconquered and elevated in prestige among many Arabs. It seems that few have noticed that since that campaign no Hezbollah missiles have been fired on northern Israel. In fact, when three rockets were recently fired from Lebanon, Hezbollah rushed to reassure the Israeli government that it was not involved and that the rockets were not the sort it even possessed.

Like the war with the Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Israeli attack on Gaza is sad but necessary. If the process towards an independent Palestinian state is to have any kind of future, the terrorist groups among the Palestinians, such as Hamas, must stop their terrorist acts and declare Israel’s right to exist. Until the people of Israel believe that a Palestinian state – including the heights of the West Bank, which overlook Tel Aviv – is not a threat to their own existence, the battles will continue to take the lives of innocents caught in the middle.

Hamas knew that a continuous firing of missiles into Israel would eventually lead to retaliation which would, in turn, lead to Palestinian civilian casualties. It’s what they want – so that they can say Israel is evil. If I had been the leader of Israel, and Hamas had fired the first Qassam missile into my country, into my home or the home of my neighbor, I would not have waited two or three years to see if the “talks” were successful while thousands of missiles were fired upon my people; I would have suspended “talks,” sent troops in to destroy Hamas, and reoccupied Gaza immediately.

The nations of the world should have never cut off aid to the Palestinians because it made them vulnerable to Hamas. But the people of Gaza are not totally innocent in this situation since they elected Hamas as their government instead of the Palestinian Authority. They elected Hamas, a terrorist group, because Hamas gave them food, medicine, and clothing when the rest of the world did not. It is time for Gazans to reject Hamas, and re-elect the Palestinian Authority, the legitimate authority, who has recognized Israel and wants peace.

None of these arguments seem to penetrate the dense brains of the idiots in Europe and the US who hold marches in the street while chanting, “We are all Hamas now.” These people are evidently not informed that Hamas has legalized crucifixion as a punishment for those who “weaken the spirit of the people” (passing this law on Christmas Eve), and have been shooting political enemies in the head when they find them lying in hospitals conveniently injured by Israeli bombing raids.

No, we are not all Hamas now. If there is to be no peace between Israel and her Arab neighbors, then I take the side of Israel – as does the majority in my country.

Friday, January 9, 2009

The End of Retirement

My husband and I have been discussing his retirement. We had planned for him to retire in 2010. Now we are unsure of the future. We followed the “three-legged stool” plan that so many retirement counselors have touted over the last 30 years: part pension, part Social Security, and part savings (for the extra things we may want). But will our state pensions be there for us in 10, 20, 30 years? Will Social Security be there? What about Medicare? Now our retirement savings account is starting to look like it may not be nearly enough. We are thinking that maybe my husband should continue teaching for several more years. At least he has a job – unlike the 7.2% who do not. (This unemployment figure does not include the 1.6 million long-term unemployed or the nearly 8 million who have been underemployed in part-time jobs or low paying jobs for years.)

Unless things change in the next few years, unless the Obama administration is able to turn things around, history will show that “retirement” was limited to one generation. European and Japanese economies stood in tatters after WWII. With little foreign competition, American capitalism could fulfill the American dream. For the first time ever, workers were promised that they would be able to securely retire. This was true ... for one generation.

The baby boomers are having to face a new reality. Last year, 2008, was supposed to be the year that the first baby boomers turned 62, beginning a retirement frenzy because people could begin to draw on their social security benefits. However, the economy has nosedived, and studies show that many are delaying their retirement by many years. The unfortunate reality is that those who had an investment plan for retirement will now join the millions of other baby boomers who were never able to save and have to work until the grave.

This is a perfect storm. Everything that could go wrong is going wrong. This storm was created by the coordinated effort of big-business and their ‘bought and paid for’ politicians. This was done by the deliberate destruction of defined benefit pension systems and its replacement with the 401(k). Now that the economic crisis has emerged, we're beginning to see just how ruinous the effects are. At the end of September 2008, it was discovered that in the previous year the value of stocks in 401(k) accounts had fallen by nearly $2 trillion with stocks having lost nearly half their value for the year. This is especially devastating since almost one-third of 401(k) participants who are now in their 60s had 80 percent of their money in stocks. People over 60 years of age should have 60 percent of their money in bonds, but investment brokers lured them from safe investments with stories of getting rich with stocks.

The 401(k) was the scam of the century. Corporations offloaded their "burdensome" pensions and used the combined forces of the media and politicians to sell the ruse to the public, to the great benefit of Wall Street. Workers were told that stocks were a sure thing. There were additional factors that pushed people to invest in stocks: interest rates were so low on bonds and other low risk instruments offered only tiny returns; and since employers stopped contributing to retirement funds, a bigger return was required.

Every "safe bet" for investing has been proven unsafe. The recession has left nothing untouched. After the dotcom bubble burst -- taking with it millions of people's 401(k) savings -- the housing market became the place to invest. Now the safest possible investment, too, has turned sour. Millions of people bought very large homes as an investment. They had planned to sell and move into a smaller place once the kids were gone, but now, due to the crash in the housing market, this will not happen for many of them. They are stuck in homes that are too large and expensive to maintain if they retire. So, they must keep working.

U.S. citizens are between a rock and a hard place because corporations have been allowed to move a large part of their companies overseas to take advantage of cheaper labor. And foreign auto companies have moved into the southeast U.S. where labor is cheap and benefits are non-existent. These foreign companies were given huge tax breaks by the state governments basically allowing them to function in this country with little to no tax “burden.” This enabled the corporations to drive down real wages for U.S. workers. At the same time the cost of living rose exponentially, causing most workers to have to spend more of their paychecks to just live. There was little to no money left to save for retirement.

Rep. Robert Andrews (D-NJ), who chairs the House subcommittee on health, employment, labor and pensions, said that in retirement, “some will have very little, some will have almost nothing, and some will have nothing.” People who have little to nothing do not retire.

This process is being accelerated by the newest scam of big business: declaring bankruptcy just to destroy pension and healthcare obligations. This destruction of benefits also applies to workers who are already retired because their pensions are slashed in half, forcing them out of retirement at a very old age. The threat of bankruptcy is now used in union contract negotiations to scare workers into concessions, since after achieving bankruptcy labor agreements are torn up and benefits are lost.

Worker benefits were at the center of the debate about whether or not to help the Detroit car companies. The Republicans in Congress, who are mostly corporate politicians, wanted the companies to declare bankruptcy – a proven method to destroy pensions and healthcare benefits. Of course the media, owned by large corporations, also attack the pension and health care benefits of the "spoiled" auto workers. Yet, at the same time, we the people, can only dream of the kind of retirement and health benefits these hypocrites have.

These Congressional Republicans would also like to see the end of Social Security. Just think what would have happened if they had been able to achieve their goal of privatizing Social Security. Everyone under 55 years of age would have been required to put part or all of their Social Security into the stock market. Where would that money be today? Non-existent.

A business going under and closing it’s doors forever is one thing. The corporate strategy of “re-organizing” through the use of bankruptcy is another thing altogether. This tactic will increase in number as the crisis deepens and companies strive to restore profitability by drastically lowering the wages and gutting the benefits of U.S. workers.

Equally important is the emerging struggle for maintaining pensions of public employees, the last stronghold of workers who receive them. Public employees will find their pensions under immense attack as the economic crisis intensifies and government budgets are depleted. Those state workers who have a strong union or professional organizations that work with state legislatures in their name are the ones who still have decent wages, pension, and health benefits – so far.

The ultimate goal of big business and their puppet politicians is to destroy the unions, destroy benefits, and push the wages of U.S. workers down even further so that business can achieve ever higher profits and line the pockets of the wealthy with more and more and more.

A battle must be waged against the destruction of pension and health benefits. It must be done by uniting both seriously determined retired and active workers with new levels of organizing and solidarity. Workers can no longer rely on the promises of Democratic politicians (although if they fail, it won’t be from lack of trying). Workers must rely on their own collective strength. Otherwise, we will see the end of retirement for everyone except the very wealthy – and the politicians.

That’s the way it used to be – one hundred years ago.

Thursday, January 1, 2009

A new dawn

I have never been more eager to see massive change at the top of our government. America has been given the chance to rise high above the chasm dug by the Bush administration. Words cannot express how much I am looking forward to January 20, 2009, when President-Elect Obama will take over and set an agenda for positive change. I have high expectations that he will use this opportunity to drive truly visionary and beneficial policies across the board.

In the last 8 years, America was trashed by George Bush and Dick Cheney in many ways. Extreme ideology combined with just plain meanness - both at the White House, and for many years, within the GOP-controlled Congress - brought America to its knees. The casual use of war in the guise of national security and it’s ensuing war crimes, the trashing of America's economic security, and the stepping stones for massive long-term environmental damage were all the handiwork of the Bush-Cheney administration. Yes, there were some Democrats who enabled parts of this terrible agenda - and they deserve blame where it is due - but the bulk of the responsibility for where America finds itself today clearly rests with the current President and Co-President. In November 2008, the American public finally saw the problem and said enough is enough. As a result, conservatism as an ideology is generally in decline.

Americans hold the expectation that an Obama administration will deliver the transformative changes required to rescue us from our broad economic troubles. Many people the world over hope that, with an Obama administration, America will once again be able to lead the them away from the frequent conflicts that are rooted in economic hardship and religious fanaticism. Obama certainly has the vision and leadership to make the kind of changes required to turn America around long-term and make it a respected leader across the world once again.

Obama’s Cabinet picks have shown great consideration on his part and have been generally praised, although there has been some grumbling on the left because so few have reputations as serious liberals. One of the very hopeful signs is that he is choosing experienced professionals for posts in government – people with areas of expertise assigned to appropriate posts, rather than making choices based on the purity of one's ideology. This is an excellent first step. Instead of acting as a liberal, Obama has moved to the center. That is where good government should be.

Polls show that a large percentage of Americans are now eagerly looking forward to the Obama Presidency and the positive change they hope it will bring. Anything Obama does will be a refreshing change from the Bush years. He left himself a fair amount of room for maneuvering in a few specific areas (including Iraq) - and if his actions fall within the gamut of views he expressed during the election, that in itself would be a good starting point. It is reasonable to argue that incremental changes from the Bush-Cheney years will be adequate in the beginning. The majority of the country seems to be more than willing to be patient and give him the benefit of time. I certainly am.

It remains to be seen how successful our new president will be, but here at the end of the old year, I feel a breath of fresh air. If Obama is successful in pulling our country out of the hole dug by the Bush-Cheney policies, there could be wonderful changes in the year to come that will bring me, all of us, contentment and gladness in being alive.

It is not just a new year, it is a new dawn.