Prominent GOP candidates are turning down offers to run against vulnerable Democrats in Congressional elections. Even though they could probably win the election in their particular districts, they do not want to serve in an ever-shrinking minority party that has little power in the Senate and no power in the House.
Last week, former Gov. Tom Ridge (R-PA) announced that he will not run for the Senate next year against new Democrat Arlen Specter:
“I am enormously grateful for the confidence my party expressed in me, the encouragement and kindness of my fellow citizens in Pennsylvania and the valuable counsel I received from so many of my party colleagues. The 2010 race has significant implications for my party, and that required thoughtful reflection. All of the above made my decision a difficult and deeply personal conclusion to reach. However, this process also impressed upon me how fortunate I am to have so many friends who volunteered to support my journey if I chose to take it and continue to offer their support after I conveyed to them this morning how I believe I can best serve my commonwealth, my party and my country.”
The decision dramatically increases the chances that Democrats will hold that newly-acquired seat since no other potential GOP candidate was anywhere close to Ridge's stature. Arlen Specter will likely retain the seat.
Tom Ridge was just the latest in a string of prominent Republican recruits to decline runs for the Senate and House next year. Representative Mark Kirk (R-IL) has declined a bid for President Obama's old Senate seat. Like Ridge, Kirk was clearly the GOP's best candidate in the state. Now, it seems highly unlikely that the GOP will wrest control of the seat away from the Democratic nominee (which will probably not be the current 'junior Senator from Illinois' Roland Burris).
In April, two other top Republicans opted out on House bids against freshmen Democrats. First, Florida GOP chair Jim Greer (R) declined to take on freshman Representative Suzanne Kosmas (D-FL) in Florida's 24th Congressional District. Second, former Representative Thelma Drake (R-VA) declined a rematch against freshman Representative Glenn Nye (D-VA). Both were huge losses for the National Republican Congressional Committee which had hoped to narrow the Democrats 79-seat majority in the Congressional House of Representatives.
Top GOP recruits who could run against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), and Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) have already declined to run, as did former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) for the open Republican-held Senate seat in Florida. Florida Governor Charlie Crist (R) has indicated an interest in running for that seat, but Crist is a moderate and will refuse to walk lock-step with an obstinate, oppositional Congressional minority - so he may not win the primary against a more right-wing conservative who, in turn, will likely lose against a Democrat. Bill Konopnicki (R-AZ) actually came out and said he isn't interested in serving in Congress unless Republicans could take back the majority in the 2010 elections.
As a result of poor recruiting, Republican numbers will likely continue to be decimated in the Senate and House. This creates a situation in 2012 and beyond in which their desired outcome of growing the party and regaining their power will be impossible to attain.
This is a very, very bad dynamic for the GOP indeed.
Why is this happening? Why is the GOP continuing to shrink? See my answer in the post just below.
Showing posts with label GOP shrinking. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GOP shrinking. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
On the precipice of becoming irrelevant
Senator Arlen Specter has seen the handwriting on the wall. His decision to switch from the Republican Party to the Democrats is probably partly due to his personal interest in holding his seat in the wake of an ultra-conservative primary challenge. Still, his decision to switch parties handed President Obama an unexpected boost on the eve of his 100-day anniversary by giving Democrats the potential of soon having that coveted 60th Senate seat – a filibuster proof margin. But most of all, it signaled further Republican decline in the Northeast. This sends a clear warning that the GOP's complete opposition to Obama’s policies is causing long-term damage to their party and playing right into Democratic hands.
GOP prospects of limiting Obama's congressional control in 2010 grow dimmer by the day. Some initial polling already shows they may have trouble putting a dent in the solid Democratic working margin In the Senate, early analysis shows that the most endangered Senate seats next year are held mostly by Republicans. Not only are they not likely to regain a majority in 2010, recent studies of the changing American electorate underscore that Republicans face a long-term challenge because of Obama's support in the country's two fastest growing voter groups, Hispanics and the Millennial generation.
According to Meghan McCain, John McCain’s daughter, Republicans did not just lose young people during the recent election – they potentially lost them for a lifetime. The election of Obama in 2008 had the makings of a sea change, much like 1980 was for Republicans. Voters ages 18 to 30 shifted to the Democrats in massive numbers. An indication that there was something deeper going on than just Obama’s personal appeal, House Democrats won by 29 points, just five points less than Obama himself. Moreover, young voters registered overwhelmingly with the Democratic Party, and, as has been often pointed out, once voters choose a party, they stick with it more often than not.
The Democracy Corps polling group recently surveyed this group of voters to see how they were feeling today about the two parties and the competing arguments being made by Obama and Republicans:
First, the Democracy Corps survey found that young voters' support for Obama has improved markedly since the election – he is viewed favorably by a margin of 65-21, as compared with 58-31 in October. Even more impressive, his job approval ratings stand at 74-17 among these voters, at least 10 points ahead of most general surveys. Perhaps most importantly, unlike surveys of older voters, there is no drop-off between Obama's personal support and that for his policies. Young voters favor the stimulus package by a proportion of 68-20, with the same 68 percent saying they are confident it will improve their own economic situations.
Second, Democrats are building on their partisan edge among young voters. Young voters give Democrats a 32-point advantage on the economy (up eight points from 2007) and a 45-point advantage on "paying attention to issues that affect young people" (up six points from 2007). In fact, only 14% said they favor Republicans.
What is most heartening, by large numbers, the survey finds that young voters are paying close attention to what is happening in Washington, which is not surprising, given that the recession is taking a heavier toll on them than on the population as a whole. And unlike Obama, who is proposing solutions to the specific problems they are facing, they do not hear any concrete ideas from Republicans that are relevant to them. Republicans are playing the same recording they have for decades – more tax cuts for the wealthy and cut Medicaid (for the poor) and Medicare (for the aging). They seem unaware the young voters are worried about having money to attend college and, afterwards, finding good-paying jobs.
In a survey commissioned by the Peterson Foundation in February, 60% of voters 18 to 34 said that the growing budget deficit and national debt is a very big threat to our country and out future. These young voters are worried about the price they may ultimately pay for today's deficit spending, but according to the “Obama Generation” survey, they place a much higher priority on taking bold action now to jump-start the economy and invest in long-term growth.
The report on the Millennial Generation, often called the "Obama Generation," should at least cause the Republicans to rethink their negative strategy, if not absolutely scare them into dumping Jindal and Palin and finding someone on the same intellectual plane as Obama. Republicans are not only losing more ground on the issue of the day – they are, in the words of John McCain's own daughter, Meghan, "on the precipice of becoming irrelevant…."
GOP prospects of limiting Obama's congressional control in 2010 grow dimmer by the day. Some initial polling already shows they may have trouble putting a dent in the solid Democratic working margin In the Senate, early analysis shows that the most endangered Senate seats next year are held mostly by Republicans. Not only are they not likely to regain a majority in 2010, recent studies of the changing American electorate underscore that Republicans face a long-term challenge because of Obama's support in the country's two fastest growing voter groups, Hispanics and the Millennial generation.
According to Meghan McCain, John McCain’s daughter, Republicans did not just lose young people during the recent election – they potentially lost them for a lifetime. The election of Obama in 2008 had the makings of a sea change, much like 1980 was for Republicans. Voters ages 18 to 30 shifted to the Democrats in massive numbers. An indication that there was something deeper going on than just Obama’s personal appeal, House Democrats won by 29 points, just five points less than Obama himself. Moreover, young voters registered overwhelmingly with the Democratic Party, and, as has been often pointed out, once voters choose a party, they stick with it more often than not.
The Democracy Corps polling group recently surveyed this group of voters to see how they were feeling today about the two parties and the competing arguments being made by Obama and Republicans:
First, the Democracy Corps survey found that young voters' support for Obama has improved markedly since the election – he is viewed favorably by a margin of 65-21, as compared with 58-31 in October. Even more impressive, his job approval ratings stand at 74-17 among these voters, at least 10 points ahead of most general surveys. Perhaps most importantly, unlike surveys of older voters, there is no drop-off between Obama's personal support and that for his policies. Young voters favor the stimulus package by a proportion of 68-20, with the same 68 percent saying they are confident it will improve their own economic situations.
Second, Democrats are building on their partisan edge among young voters. Young voters give Democrats a 32-point advantage on the economy (up eight points from 2007) and a 45-point advantage on "paying attention to issues that affect young people" (up six points from 2007). In fact, only 14% said they favor Republicans.
What is most heartening, by large numbers, the survey finds that young voters are paying close attention to what is happening in Washington, which is not surprising, given that the recession is taking a heavier toll on them than on the population as a whole. And unlike Obama, who is proposing solutions to the specific problems they are facing, they do not hear any concrete ideas from Republicans that are relevant to them. Republicans are playing the same recording they have for decades – more tax cuts for the wealthy and cut Medicaid (for the poor) and Medicare (for the aging). They seem unaware the young voters are worried about having money to attend college and, afterwards, finding good-paying jobs.
In a survey commissioned by the Peterson Foundation in February, 60% of voters 18 to 34 said that the growing budget deficit and national debt is a very big threat to our country and out future. These young voters are worried about the price they may ultimately pay for today's deficit spending, but according to the “Obama Generation” survey, they place a much higher priority on taking bold action now to jump-start the economy and invest in long-term growth.
The report on the Millennial Generation, often called the "Obama Generation," should at least cause the Republicans to rethink their negative strategy, if not absolutely scare them into dumping Jindal and Palin and finding someone on the same intellectual plane as Obama. Republicans are not only losing more ground on the issue of the day – they are, in the words of John McCain's own daughter, Meghan, "on the precipice of becoming irrelevant…."
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Creation of a loyal Dem generation
Karl Rove’s slash-and-burn style of politics may have done long term damage to the Republican party, both in terms of the number of people who identify with the party as well as broader issues of ideology.
The Republicans spent 35 to 40 years building themselves into a position where they could make a legitimate challenge to American liberalism. Finally, with the election of George W. Bush, they managed to reach a position where a permanent conservative majority seemed very likely. But at the moment they reached the zenith of their accomplishment, the Bush-Rove group managed to produce corruption, incompetence, and harsh partisanship, turning away from GOP basic tenets. They systematically dismantled everything with such speed that moderate Republicans ran for the hills leaving the base in denial (some have wool over their eyes even now).
The Bush tax cuts, given mostly to the wealthy, have already added about $2 trillion dollars to our deficit. The bottom line is that a party that added trillions of dollars to the future debt during a time of boom has no credible answer, other than raw partisanship, for opposing the $800 billion stimulus bill during the worst downturn in employment and GDP since the Great Depression. The Republican party, which insisted for eight years that "deficits don't matter," has no standing to oppose a measure that provides barely a minimum amount to form an economic bottom in an impending depression.
It is increasingly difficult to make an argument that the Republican party is acting in good faith with President Obama or the American people. What is most troubling is that just after the election, the tone for the party was set by Rush Limbaugh, who openly said he wanted Obama to “fail” and immediately threw down the gauntlet against cooperation with the new President. The Republican party leaders and base immediately fell into the all too familiar lock-step. Even so, their states will share in the $54 billion that is designated to help all states keep their state workers – including policemen, firemen, and teachers – on the job; hire people to build and repair roads, schools, and bridges; shore up medicaid; extend unemployment benefits; etc.
To take the Republicans' fiscal conservatism seriously at this point is to engage in instant amnesia. Along the same line, to find a sliver of a reason in Judd Gregg's own self-defense for changing his mind about being Secretary of Commerce (other than partisan pressure) is close to impossible.
The Grand Old Party (Republican) may be digging its own grave. The latest Pew report on trends in public opinion over the last decade is a clear indictment of the Bush-Rove brand of conservatism and, therefore, the Republican party. Party identification is now 50 percent Democrat and 35 percent GOP. Religious intensity is falling; acceptance of gay people is rising. The younger generation is the most secular of any. Support for the military has never been stronger - people don't blame the troops for the war. Women's equality and freedom are values now overwhelmingly popular among all groups, including Republicans, and strongest among the young. At this point in time, the party has been relegated to mostly southern and a few western mountain states.
Over the last eight years, the Republicans seem to have unwittingly created the most loyal generation (the under 30s) to the Democratic Party since the New Deal.
The Republicans spent 35 to 40 years building themselves into a position where they could make a legitimate challenge to American liberalism. Finally, with the election of George W. Bush, they managed to reach a position where a permanent conservative majority seemed very likely. But at the moment they reached the zenith of their accomplishment, the Bush-Rove group managed to produce corruption, incompetence, and harsh partisanship, turning away from GOP basic tenets. They systematically dismantled everything with such speed that moderate Republicans ran for the hills leaving the base in denial (some have wool over their eyes even now).
The Bush tax cuts, given mostly to the wealthy, have already added about $2 trillion dollars to our deficit. The bottom line is that a party that added trillions of dollars to the future debt during a time of boom has no credible answer, other than raw partisanship, for opposing the $800 billion stimulus bill during the worst downturn in employment and GDP since the Great Depression. The Republican party, which insisted for eight years that "deficits don't matter," has no standing to oppose a measure that provides barely a minimum amount to form an economic bottom in an impending depression.
It is increasingly difficult to make an argument that the Republican party is acting in good faith with President Obama or the American people. What is most troubling is that just after the election, the tone for the party was set by Rush Limbaugh, who openly said he wanted Obama to “fail” and immediately threw down the gauntlet against cooperation with the new President. The Republican party leaders and base immediately fell into the all too familiar lock-step. Even so, their states will share in the $54 billion that is designated to help all states keep their state workers – including policemen, firemen, and teachers – on the job; hire people to build and repair roads, schools, and bridges; shore up medicaid; extend unemployment benefits; etc.
To take the Republicans' fiscal conservatism seriously at this point is to engage in instant amnesia. Along the same line, to find a sliver of a reason in Judd Gregg's own self-defense for changing his mind about being Secretary of Commerce (other than partisan pressure) is close to impossible.
The Grand Old Party (Republican) may be digging its own grave. The latest Pew report on trends in public opinion over the last decade is a clear indictment of the Bush-Rove brand of conservatism and, therefore, the Republican party. Party identification is now 50 percent Democrat and 35 percent GOP. Religious intensity is falling; acceptance of gay people is rising. The younger generation is the most secular of any. Support for the military has never been stronger - people don't blame the troops for the war. Women's equality and freedom are values now overwhelmingly popular among all groups, including Republicans, and strongest among the young. At this point in time, the party has been relegated to mostly southern and a few western mountain states.
Over the last eight years, the Republicans seem to have unwittingly created the most loyal generation (the under 30s) to the Democratic Party since the New Deal.
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